ASCF Report, 5.1.17
By Alan W. Dowd
Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) was discovered—or perhaps better
said, the dangerous and destructive side-effects of EMP were discovered—quite
by accident in 1962, after a nuclear warhead was test-detonated 248 miles above
Johnston Island. Immediately after the blast, telephone lines, power lines and
electrical systems shorted out in Hawaii—900 miles away from the test. The
military soon began to harden new weapons systems against the effects of EMP.
But in the half-century since, America finds itself less equipped and less
prepared for a high-altitude EMP attack, even as the nation has become more
dependent on the electronic devices that an EMP event would destroy.
As recently detailed in the journal of the Association
of Former Intelligence Officers, radios and TVs, heating and air conditioning
units, cellphones, computers, landline phones, most cars built after 1980, sewer
and water pumps, and vast swaths of the power grid would cease to work after an
EMP event. And they would be out of service for many weeks or months, throwing
our technology-dependent economy society back to the 1800s.
Yet Peter Pry, who served on the Congressional EMP
Commission, noted in 2015, “The White House and
the Congress have done nothing to protect the electric grid from a
long-term blackout,” the effects of which “could kill up to nine in 10
Americans by starvation and societal collapse.”
Pry explains that “The likelihood of a nuclear EMP attack is
unknown but increasing with the proliferation of technology for missiles and
nuclear weapons,” adding: “The military doctrines of Russia, China, North Korea
and Iran describe a revolutionary new kind of warfare that would use
cyberattacks and physical sabotage, combined and coordinated with EMP attack,
to black out the national electric grid and crash the other critical
infrastructures…For the first time in history, failed states such as Iran or
North Korea or terrorists could use a blackout war to destroy the most
successful societies on earth.”
To be sure, Russia and China are responsive to deterrence
and the threat of overwhelming retaliation. But a paranoid Pyongyang and a
terrorist Tehran may not be.
“We have data
indicating that the Iranians have launched their versions of Scuds off of the
Caspian Sea—not from land, but from the sea—and launched them over land,”
William Graham explained in a recent Forbes interview. Graham, who has worked with the highest
levels of the federal government and the military on EMP preparedness since the
1962 event, chaired the Congressional EMP Commission. “We’ve also seen them launch missiles that
have gone up and apparently exploded near their highest altitude—when you put
those two ideas together—that is an EMP attack.” Indeed, the Iranian military has contemplated such an attack
against the U.S.
According to Pry, “North Korea has actually practiced this against the United States.”Thus, Graham and other EMP
experts from the Foundation for Resilient Societies warned in a 2013 letter to
President Barack Obama, “A high altitude nuclear EMP attack from North
Korea is an imminent threat to the United States.”
The threat isn’t limited to the world’s rogues: Solar flares can trigger a “geomagnetic storm”
that can have the same effect as a high-altitude EMP blast. “The last such
flare—known as the Carrington Event—happened in 1859, frying telegraph lines
around the planet,” The Atlantic magazine reports. Even a non-hostile event like this
would affect 130 million people and
cost $2 trillion today, according to The Atlantic’s analysis.
These threats and possibilities explain why the Pentagon is
relocating key communications assets to Cheyenne Mountain and pouring nearly $1
billion into NORAD’s Cold War bunker. “Since 2013, the Pentagon has awarded
contracts worth more than $850 million for work related to
Cheyenne Mountain,” DefenseOne reports. “Because of the
very nature of the way that Cheyenne Mountain is built, it’s EMP-hardened,”
explains Adm. William Gortney, former commander of NORTHCOM
and NORAD.
Learning
This is no time for panic; it
is time for action.
The good news is this: The
United States can—if it summons the will—prepare for and guard against the EMP
threat.
Toward that end, Graham and his colleagues urged Obama to
pursue “emergency deployment of cost-effective missile defense systems” to
provide a first line of defense against North Korea’s and Iran’s missile
capabilities.
In the medium term, they called for “protection of electric-grid
control rooms at regional balancing authorities” and protection of “critical
Extra High Voltage transformers” across the country.
In the long-term, they called on Washington to ensure that “all
high-priority critical infrastructures when upgraded or replaced…be subject to
nuclear EMP-protection standard.”
In a similar vein, the EMP Coalition—with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich leading the way—has
called on government and industry to work together to harden the electrical
grid with the equivalent of
large-scale surge protectors at key points in the grid. So-called “Faraday
Cages”—boxes that absorb electrical current—could be installed at key
junctures. In addition, as The Atlantic reports, government and industry
need to have replacement parts, such
as industrial-scale transformers, at the ready. These can take years to
fabricate and field.
Legislation in
two different congresses and a blue-ribbon commission that worked from 2001 to
2008 tried to push these sorts of measures. But nothing has become law to date. That may be due to
cost—estimates for hardening the grid against EMP attack and/or geomagnetic
storms range up to $20 billion—or old-fashioned American complacency.
We should learn from how previous generations of Americans
responded to major threats. George Washington urged Congress to choose
“preparation and vigor” over complacency, and to summon the will “to do what
our abilities and the circumstance of our finance may well justify.” Dwight Eisenhowercited continuity and national security in rallying support for the interstate
highway system: “In case of an atomic attack on our key cities, the road net
must permit quick evacuation of target areas, mobilization of defense forces
and maintenance of every essential economic function.” Ronald Reagan
established—and his administration rehearsed—detailed continuity-of-government
contingency plans, in the event of a Soviet attack.
These leaders understood the importance of preparedness and resiliency—and
the need for action. Twenty-billion
dollars seems a small price to pay to protect and secure something on which our
entire way of life depends.