Landing Zone | 4.16.18
By Alan W. Dowd
Late
last year, the president and Congress codified into law plans to deploy a
355-ship Navy. But now there are worrying reports that even with the new shipbuilding plan, the Navy won’t be able to reach the
355-mark until the mid-2050s. The good news is that congressional leaders are exploring
ways to remove the impediments to a 355-ship fleet—and that close allies are
partnering with the U.S. to field a navy of navies that can fill in the gaps
created by years of short-term thinking in Washington.
Before
getting to the good news, it’s important to discuss why America’s Navy needs to
grow and why America’s allies need to play their part in maritime
security—which brings us to the bad news.
Claiming
90 percent of the South China Sea based on a map drawn by Chinese
cartographers in 1947, China is flouting international norms and turning reefs
hundreds of miles outside its territorial waters into military outposts.
To
date, Beijing has constructed some 3,200 acres of instant islands in
international waters. Beijing has deployed surface-to-air missile batteries <
https://amti.csis.org/chinas-new-spratly-island-defenses/>, anti-ship
missile batteries and sophisticated radar systems on some of the man-made
islands. One of the instant islands features a 10,000-foot airstrip—long enough
for bombers and fighter-interceptors. As PACOM commander Adm. Harry Harris
concludes, these islands “are clearly military in nature.” He adds that the
Chinese “have seven new bases in the South China Sea.”
Related,
China will deploy 73 attack submarines, 58 frigates, 34 destroyers, five
ballistic-missile submarines and two aircraft carriers by 2020. Beijing’s goal:
to control the resource-rich South China Sea and muscle the United States out
of the Western Pacific. As Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan puts it, China is trying to turn the South China Sea into “Lake
Beijing.”
Thousands
of miles away, Russia is making outlandish claims in the resource-rich Arctic.
Moscow lays claim to half the Arctic Circle and the entire
North Pole—some 463,000
square miles of Arctic sea shelf—disregarding the claims and territories
of other Arctic nations such as the U.S., Canada, Denmark, Norway and Iceland.
Like Beijing, Moscow has underlined its claims in a
brazen military context: In 2015, Russia conducted a huge Arctic
military exercise involving 80,000 troops,
220 aircraft, 41 ships and 15 submarines. Russia has stood up six new bases north of the
Arctic Circle, opened/reopened 16 ports and 13 airfields in the region, and
deployed sophisticated S-400 surface-to-air missile
batteries in the Arctic.Moscow plans to
have nine
airfields operational in the Arctic by the end of this year.
In the Middle East, Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of
Hormuz (2011-12, 2016), routinely harassed <
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/07/25/u-s-and-iranian-warships-have-another-close-encounter-in-the-persian-gulf/?utm_term=.cfd8ad20b36e>
U.S. warships in international waters (2007-08, 2016-17), and illegally seized
cargo ships (2015) and a U.S. Navy vessel (2016).
Finally,
there’s the lingering problem of piracy. Although pirate attacks are down from
their highpoint in 2009-11—a three-year span that saw an average of 431 attacks
per year—there have been an average of 243 attacks annually over the past several
years. Importantly, those numbers fell due to a concerted, coordinated response
from Western naval forces.
This list of maritime challenges explains why Adm. Mike Mullen promoted the
“thousand-ship navy” concept during his tenure as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff. “The United States Navy cannot, by itself, preserve the freedom and
security of the entire maritime domain,” he explained. “It must count on
assistance from like-minded nations interested in using the sea for lawful
purposes…Because today’s challenges are global in nature, we must be collective
in our response…As we combine our advantages, I envision a 1,000-ship navy—a
fleet-in-being, if you will, made up of the best capabilities of all
freedom-loving navies of the world.”
Although
some have dismissed the idea, the reality is an ad hoc navy of navies—enfolding
the combined seapower of the United States and allies in NATO, Japan,
Australia, South Korea, India and other partners—is doing much to police the
seas and promote maritime security:
- Formed in 2003 by 11 allies in North
America, Europe, Asia and the Pacific, the Proliferation Security
Initiative today enfolds dozens of seafaring powers that collaborate “to stop trafficking of weapons of mass
destruction, their delivery systems, and related materials to and from
states and non-state actors”—by force if necessary.
- The Combined Maritime Forces is a
partnership of 32 nations that contribute naval and air assets, basing and/or
personnel to operations focused on counterterrorism (Combined Task Force 150), counterpiracy (Combined Task Force 151) and security in the Persian Gulf (Combined
Task Force 152).
- India, Japan and the U.S. carry out
what amounts to regional policing in the Strait of Malacca and Bay of
Bengal; Australia, Britain, France, Italy and the U.S. in the Persian Gulf
and Strait of Hormuz; Australia, Japan, Britain, France and the U.S. in
the South and East China Seas.
Indeed,
several key partners have joined the U.S. in its efforts to defend freedom of
navigation and freedom of the seas against China’s lawlessness. Japan is expanding
its naval activity in the South China Sea by conducting joint patrols <
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-japan-patrols/japan-to-boost-south-china-sea-role-with-training-patrols-with-u-s-minister-idUSKCN11L2FE>
with the U.S. Navy as well as multilateral exercises in waters China claims.
British Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson
recently announced that the frigate HMS Sutherlandwill “be sailing through the South China Sea and making it clear our navy has a
right to do that.” Asked about U.S. freedom of navigations operations (FONOPs)
in the region, Williamson said, “We absolutely support the U.S. approach on
this…We've got to ensure that any form of malign
intent is countered.”
Australia
conducts air patrols over the South China Sea to ensure freedom of the seas and
skies. RAAF Air Marshal Leo Davies says his nation “will work closely with our
allies, partners and other like-minded air forces to determine how we can make
a practical contribution to ensuring freedom of navigation.”
“Several
times per year, French navy ships cross the waters of this region, and they’ll
continue to do it,” French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Driantold attendees at a recent Asian security conference,
adding that France is committed to “sailing its ships and flying its planes
wherever international law will allow, and wherever operational needs request
that we do so.”
In addition, during the campaign
against ISIS in Iraq, the French aircraft carrier Charles
de Gaulle served as a command center for the multinational anti-ISIS
task force.
However,
that’s just the tip of the iceberg. A U.S. Naval Institute (USNI) symposium of naval commanders underscores the breadth and depth of international
contributions to maritime security—and the reach of this “navy of navies.”
The German navy, for example,
contributes to NATO’s Standing Naval Forces; the EU’s maritime training and
counter-smuggling operation in Libya; and the EU’s counterpiracy operations off
the Horn of Africa. A German frigate is deploying this year with the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group.
The Italian navy is participating in the EU’s maritime operations off the coast of
Libya and Somalia, as well as NATO’s Operation Sea Guardian, which conducts
FONOPs, maritime interdiction, counterproliferation and counterterrorism.
Portuguese surface
ships and submarines contribute to Standing NATO Maritime Group 1, NATO’s
Operation Sea Guardian and the EU’s Operation Sophia (off the coast of Libya).
The Danish navy will
command NATO’s mine-countermeasure task force next year.
Pakistan’s navy
contributes to Combined Task Force 150 and Combined Task Force 151. Brazil’s
navy has supported multinational maritime operations in and around Haiti and
Lebanon.
None
of this is to suggest that the U.S. should be content with the current size of
its Navy. As leader of the West, America needs to do its part by recapitalizing
the fleet.
It pays to recall that at the height of President Ronald Reagan’s rebuild ,
the Navy boasted 594 ships. When President Bill Clinton
dispatched two carrier battle groups to the South China Sea to smother
Beijing’s temper tantrum in the Taiwan Strait, the fleet totaled 375 ships.
When President George W. Bush launched the first counterstrokes against al
Qaeda, the Navy deployed 316 warships. Today’s
fleet, in a time of war and metastasizing instability, numbers just 277 active deployable ships.
These
numbers aren’t even close to America’s maritime needs. “For us to meet what
combatant commanders request,” according to former CNO Adm.
Jonathan Greenert, “we need a Navy of 450 ships.” Testimony before Congress reveals that in 2007 the Navy had the resources to meet 90
percent of combatant commanders’ requests. By 2014, that number had fallen to
just 43 percent. A government-funded study concludes that the U.S. needs 14
aircraft carriers (the Navy has 10 active), 160 cruisers and destroyers (the Navy has 84), and 72 attack submarines
(the Navy has 52).
These gaps have real-world implications: After Tehran threatened
to close the Strait of Hormuz in 2012, CENTCOM requested an extra aircraft carrier to send a strong deterrent signal. That request was denied because the carrier was
needed in the Pacific. When the Obama administration ordered warplanes
from USS George H.W. Bush to blunt
the ISIS blitzkrieg in 2014, Greenert admitted that “they stopped their
sorties” over Afghanistan to do so. Similarly, the Trump administration’s apparent sleight-of-hand with USS Carl Vinson during the North
Korea crisis in spring 2017—trying to make one carrier do the work of two—underscored
that the U.S. doesn’t have the carrier firepower it needs to dissuade foes and
reassure allies. Finally, the
Coast Guard deploys only two operational Arctic-capable
icebreakers—one a medium-duty vessel tasked largely to scientific missions, the
other an antique that has exceeded its 30-year lifespan. By comparison, Russia
has 40 icebreakers, with another 11
in production.
“The
Navy shipbuilding plan that doesn’t get to 355 ships
until the mid-2050s is unacceptable,” argues Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), chair
of the Senate Armed Services seapower subcommittee.
Although the current plan rapidly expands the fleet’s numbers to 326 ships in
the next five years, it stalls in year six. “Suddenly there’s a dip,” Wicker
explains. “We don’t like the dip.” So, Wicker is
pushing the administration and his colleagues for increased funding “to speed
up the production pace,” as USNI reports.
As the Navy copes with the consequences of years ofunderfunding at home and braces for years of multidimensional challenges abroad, waiting
until the mid-2050s to deploy a 355-ship fleet is the very definition of too
little too late. The solution is more resources for America’s Navy and more
help from America’s allies.