ASCF Report | 9.1.18
By Alan W. Dowd
Venezuela is imploding before our very eyes: Venezuelans are starving
in the streets; the public-health system has collapsed; some 60,000
Venezuelans are flowing into Brazil and Colombia each month to seek food
and medicine; Venezuela’s man-made humanitarian crisis has turned more
than 2 million into refugees; the state is unraveling; and the
government has turned on its own people, killing hundreds of civilians over the past 30 months.
Given the American public’s engagement fatigue—and the complicated
history of U.S. interaction with Latin America—it won’t be easy for
policymakers to make the case for intervening to save Venezuela from
itself. But given the mounting costs and dangers, some sort of
intervention may be unavoidable at a certain point—whether or not the
American people want to intervene. It pays to recall that President
George H.W. Bush avoided intervening in Somalia, President Bill Clinton
avoided intervening in Bosnia and President Barack Obama avoided
intervening in Iraq and Syria—until events, public opinion, American
interests, and/or American ideals finally forced them to reverse course
and intervene.
A similar phenomenon may be happening today. Even though he has
expressed deep reservations about humanitarian intervention, President
Donald Trump has observed,
“We have troops all over the world in places that are very, very far
away…Venezuela is not very far away and the people are suffering, and
they are dying.”
America will answer if called upon to help the people of Venezuela,
even if reluctantly. The question Trump seems to be contemplating is:
Should we wait for the call?
Ideals
Trump is hinting at the moral case for helping the people of Venezuela—and it’s an increasingly compelling one.
According to the UN Human Rights Office, Venezuelan police and
security forces have carried out more than 500 extra-judicial killings
since the latter half of 2015. There are documented reports of security forces committing acts of torture and sexual assault against detainees.
According to the Organization of American States (OAS),
the Maduro regime has carried out 12,000 arbitrary detentions, engaged
in the “criminalization” of duly elected opposition politicians, and is
guilty of “state-orchestrated human suffering”—withholding food, medical
supplies, government services and subsidies from communities, groups
and individuals affiliated with regime opponents.
Mercy Corps reports the typical Venezuelan lost 24 pounds last year; 300,000 Venezuelan
children are at risk of death from malnutrition; and infant mortality is
up 30 percent since 2015.
Preventable diseases like measles, diphtheria and malaria are loose
in Venezuela—afflicting hundreds of thousands. And tragically, 88 percent of Venezuela’s hospitals lack basic medicines to treat the most basic illnesses.
Venezuela’s broken healthcare system is a function of Venezuela’s
broken economy, which will only get worse in the months to come. The IMF projects Venezuela’s GDP “to fall by about 18 percent in 2018—the third
consecutive year of double-digit declines in real GDP,” predicts “a
surge in inflation to 1,000,000 percent by end-2018” (that’s 1 million
percent) and concludes that “the situation in Venezuela is similar to
that in Germany in 1923.”
Yet the Maduro regime is refusing most international aid,
which makes this worse than a typical humanitarian crisis. A more
accurate description of Maduro’s Venezuela is a hostage crisis—but on a
massive, nationwide scale.
It pays to recall that we’re not talking about some faraway country
doomed by geography to an endless struggle for survival. This is not a
victim of foreign aggression, civil war or natural disaster. Oil-rich
Venezuela is a victim of terrible policies and failed government.
“Once rich, Venezuela is now poor,” Vice President Mike Pence recently
observed. “Once free, Venezuela is now oppressed. And once a model of
stability, Venezuela’s collapse has led to a crisis unlike any in our
Western Hemisphere’s history…Venezuela is now essentially a failed
state, and the Venezuelan people are suffering,”
Interests
There’s also a national-security case for stabilizing Venezuela.
There are real threats Venezuela’s crisis could spawn: We know that
a) jihadist groups seek out and thrive in lawless lands, and b) jihadist
groups have made inroads in South America. It doesn’t strain the
imagination to contemplate these groups—and their state sponsors—setting
up shop in the ungoverned areas of Venezuela. In a similar vein, Russia
and China, which already have security and economic ties to the Maduro
regime, could use Venezuela’s chaos as a pretext to expand their
footprints in South America. As Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said of Venezuela, “The Russians are there, the Iranians [and]
Hezbollah are there. This is something that has a risk of getting to a
very, very bad place.”
A more immediate threat is the likelihood that Venezuela’s
instability will infect its neighbors. At least 2.3 million Venezuelans
have fled their crumbling country: 600,000 to Colombia; 300,000 to Peru;
290,000 to the U.S.; 119,000 to Chile; 104,000 to Mexico, Panama, the
Dominican Republic and Costa Rica; 57,000 to Argentina; 35,500 to
Ecuador; 35,000 to Brazil. Some 50,000 Venezuelans move back and forth
across the Colombia-Venezuela border daily to access basic necessities
not available in their homeland.
In response, Colombia has dispatched its army to border checkpoints to deter and turn back
illegal immigration from Venezuela. Brazilian border towns are chasing
away Venezuelans and building makeshift barricades.
In short, Venezuela’s crisis is destabilizing South America and
impacting the entire hemisphere. Not surprisingly, Pence calls the
situation in Venezuela a “threat to our collective security” and warns that “the U.S. will not stand idly by while Venezuela collapses.”
So far, the U.S. response has taken the form of aid to assist
Colombia, Ecuador, and other frontline states in sheltering and handling
the tidal wave of Venezuelan refugees. But more will be required of
America because more problems are looming in Venezuela. “An explosion is
coming,” former NATO commander Adm. James Stavridis warns. “And when it does, we should expect a great deal of violence and massive refugee flows.”
To prepare and brace for the worst, Stavridis recommends standing up
“a State Department-led interagency working group to craft a strategy
for dealing with a possible civil war…planning by the Department of
Defense for humanitarian operations…[and] advance stationing of supplies
and medicines by the U.S. Agency for International Development in the
Caribbean.”
Stavridis, Pence and Pompeo know that Venezuela’s security forces are beginning to splinter into pro- and anti-regime camps, which increases the likelihood that
the Venezuelan crisis will devolve from civil unrest to full-blown civil
war. Indeed, rebel soldiers have launched attacks against military bases outside Caracas; the number of soldiers arrested for treason is rising rapidly; and an anti-regime group recently deployed drones in
an effort to assassinate Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro.
Restoration
The old adage that “people get the government they deserve” arguably
doesn’t apply in Maduro’s Venezuela. Although there is a powerful
minority that supports the regime, the people have tried to oust Maduro
and his coterie of thugs via political means—only to be blocked by the
Supreme Court, National Electoral Council, armed mobs, a faux parliament designed by Maduro for the express purpose of bypassing the country’s duly-elected National Assembly, and sham elections that barred the main opposition party from participating.
In response, the OAS Secretary General’s Office bluntly declared, “We do not recognize Nicolas Maduro as the legitimate president of Venezuela.” In addition, the OAS has issued a staggering bill of indictment against the Maduro regime, including state-sanctioned acts of torture,
sexual violence, extra-judicial executions and other “crimes against
humanity.” And the OAS and has called upon its members “to implement, in accordance with their respective
legal frameworks and applicable international law, the measures deemed
appropriate at the political, economic, and financial levels to assist
in the restoration of democratic order in Venezuela.”
Toward that end, Ecuador is organizing a regional summit to address the Venezuelan crisis. The
Colombian government has called on its neighbors to “work together in a
coordinated manner, employing similar policies” to address the causes
and consequences of Venezuela’s mass-migration.
Pompeo has urged the OAS to suspend Maduro’s Venezuela. Further along
the diplomatic track, Washington should rally other partners throughout
the Americas to join in openly calling for Maduro’s ouster—and in
pledging that Venezuela’s return to constitutional government and
reinstatement of the National Assembly will open the floodgates to
humanitarian relief, economic aid, technical support and security
assistance from every corner of the Western Hemisphere.
However, to avoid the perception of a return of “Yankee imperialism”
and to deprive Maduro of fodder for fueling Venezuelan nationalism,
Washington should encourage and empower the nations in Venezuela’s
neighborhood to take the lead—working through the OAS, CARICOM, Association of Caribbean States,
and other regional partnerships where possible and appropriate. Like
any hostage crisis, the goal in Venezuela is to rescue and release the
innocent. A U.S. invasion could undermine that goal.
As Pence put it, in words that no doubt reassured his South American hosts,
“What we do to see democracy restored in Venezuela, we will do
together.”