LANDING ZONE | 10.15.18
ALAN W. DOWD
“The
United States is spending far more on NATO than any other country,”
President Trump bluntly observed earlier this year. “This is not fair,
nor is it acceptable.” This follows his suggestion that he would come to the defense of NATO members under attack only if
they had “fulfilled their obligations to us.” In reaction, Chancellor
Angela Merkel of Germany warily concludes, “It is no longer such that the United States simply protects us…Europe must take its destiny in its own hands.”
Coming
from the two largest members of the NATO alliance -- the United States
is NATO’s political-military linchpin, Germany NATO’s geographic center
-- these are worrisome words. Trying to put a positive spin on these
angry exchanges, a European diplomat compares it all to “fights among families ... things can get nasty, but it's still a family.”
But to extend the diplomat’s metaphor, even families can break apart.
Burden sharing
President
Trump’s call for the rest of the alliance to invest more in defense is
not unwarranted. Even NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg concedes,
“We still do not have fair burden-sharing within our alliance.”
That’s
an understatement. During the Cold War, the United States accounted for
50 percent of NATO military spending, today 72 percent.
Neither
is President Trump’s admonition unprecedented. Long before the Trump
presidency, Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned of the
“demilitarization of Europe.” What was “a blessing in the 20th century,”
he observed, had become “an impediment to achieving real security and
lasting peace in the 21st.”
To rectify this problem, NATO defense ministers agreed in 2006 “to commit a minimum of 2 percent of their GDP to spending on defense.” In 2014,
the alliance called on members “to move towards the 2-percent guideline
within a decade.” Only eight members will meet that standard by the end
of this year. European members invest an average of 1.4 percent on defense. Germany spends just 1.24
percent of GDP on defense. Britain is using accounting tricks to stay
above the 2-percent mark, shifting monies from the Foreign Office to
defense. Canada was below 1 percent until this year.
But defense spending -- or lack thereof -- is not President Trump’s only concern, especially regarding Germany.
“Germany,”
President Trump said during this year’s NATO summit, “is a captive of
Russia because it’s getting so much of its energy from Russia.”
This
understandably offended Merkel. But again, President Trump’s assessment
is on target, even though his words and tone are off.
Germany
relies on Vladimir Putin’s Russia for much of its energy. About half of
Germany’s natural gas, 40 percent of Germany’s oil and 30 percent of
Germany’s coal comes from Russia.
Whether or not that makes Germany “captive” to Russia, it’s worrisome
to have the geographic heart of the NATO alliance dependent on Putin for
these vital resources.
It’s
not hard to imagine Putin using this as leverage during some future
crisis. In fact, he already has. In 2009, in the dead of winter, Russia
shut off natural-gas flows bound for Ukraine, Bulgaria, Hungary and
Greece (all but Ukraine are NATO members).
That
episode underscores why the growing transatlantic divide must be
bridged. The threat from Moscow may be different than it was during the
Cold War, but it’s real.
In the past decade, Putin’s Russia has:
-
Launched a cyberwar against NATO member Estonia;
-
Invaded
and dismembered NATO aspirant Georgia; violated the INF Treaty, which
prohibits deployment of intermediate-range nuclear missiles;
-
Invaded
Ukraine and annexed Crimea, in violation of the 1994 Budapest
Memorandum, in which Moscow pledged to “respect the independence and
sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine”;
-
Reactivated the 1st Guards Tank Army, a large armored force based in western Russia equipped with 500 main battle tanks;
-
Conducted scores of provocative, unannounced “snap” military exercises;
-
Hacked into Western political systems and used weaponized leaks to influence elections;
-
Armed the Taliban in Afghanistan;
-
Supplied North Korea with jet fuel (filling the void created after China cooled relations with Pyongyang); and,
-
Increased military outlays by 125 percent.
To
be sure, Putin’s military is a shell of the Red Army. But it pays to
recall that his military spending binge and aggressive acts occurred as
NATO slashed military spending.
Action items
Europe
may resent America’s economic strength, cultural clout and zigzagging
foreign policy. The United States may resent shouldering a heavier
burden than Europe on the international stage. America’s president and
Germany’s chancellor may flat-out despise each other. But Europe and the
United States need each other to keep the peace on a continent that has
spawned two world wars. And both sides of the Atlantic should remember
that NATO’s purpose is “to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area.”
What should America do to shore up the transatlantic bridge?
First,
Washington should learn what every good coach knows innately: praise in
public, criticize in private. President Obama failed this measure of
leadership by publicly criticizing his French and British counterparts.
President Trump has failed by being so vocal and public about what he
sees as foot-dragging and free-riding in Europe. The president is right
to challenge the allies to do more, but how he has made his case is
wrong.
Second,
Washington should stop viewing everything at NATO in transactional
terms. According to Defense Secretary James Mattis, “NATO is vital to
our interests.” Indeed, it represents a foundation stone in the liberal
international order, an insurance policy against great-power war, a
readymade structure for building coalitions of the willing, a bridge to
global hotspots and a force-multiplier for U.S. power. As several former
NATO commanders conclude, “There is no hope for the U.S. to sustain its
role as the world’s sole superpower without the Europeans as allies.”
Adds Adm. James Foggo, commander of U.S. Naval Forces-Europe, “We
couldn’t do all the missions that we do without our forward-deployed
forces in Europe, and we couldn’t do this without partners.”
The
general officers know that protecting our interests and our
civilization, preserving some semblance of order, responding to natural
disasters and man-made chaos -- these missions depend on NATO
infrastructure in places like Lakenheath, Ramstein, Morón, Aviano and
Incirlik.
Third, America must keep its word. President Obama failed this in relation to missile-defense plans for Eastern Europe and by failing to enforce his own red line in Syria.
President Trump has failed this measure of leadership by moving the
goalposts on defense spending and by raising doubts about America’s
security guarantee.
The
allies agreed to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. Some have hit that
target; all of them are increasing defense spending. Yet the president
demanded in July that they double defense spending to 4 percent of GDP
-- this after the Bush and Obama administrations worked hard to persuade
the allies to agree to 2 percent.
As to America’s commitment to Europe’s security, President Trump’s 2017 Warsaw address affirming “that we stand firmly behind Article V"
and calling on Russia “to cease its destabilizing activities” was a
step in the right direction. His performance in Brussels this summer was
a step backwards.
Europe also has work to do.
First,
the allies must make good on their 2-percent commitment. Until Russia
is fully and truly liberalized -- something that won’t occur until Putin
is gone -- building up the common defense is the best way to defend
NATO and deter Moscow. What Churchill said of his Russian counterparts
is true of Putin and his generals: “There is nothing they admire so much
as strength, and there is nothing for which they have less respect than
for weakness.”
Devoting
2 percent of GDP to the common defense sends a signal of seriousness
and solidarity, and it will prevent NATO’s devolution from an
all-for-one alliance into a one-for-all public good.
No
doubt spurred by President Trump, NATO saw in 2017 its biggest spending
increase in 25 years. In 2014, only three NATO nations spent 2 percent
of their GDP on defense. By 2024, two-thirds of the alliance will reach 2
percent. France is on track to reach the 2-percent threshold by 2022.
Norway increased defense spending 9.8 percent in 2016-2017. The Czech
Republic will increase the size of its military 63 percent by 2025.
Germany is adding 20,000 troops to its ranks.
Second,
the allies must prove that NATO’s security guarantee is as valid for
the newest members of the alliance as it is for the oldest.
Toward
that end, NATO nations have forward-deployed units in the Baltics and
Poland “to unambiguously demonstrate” their determination to defend the
easternmost members of the alliance. U.S., Canadian, German and British
units are spearheading the effort.
In
addition, NATO defense ministers recently approved plans to create new
commands to improve the movement of troops across the Atlantic and
within Europe. The newly-minted Four 30s Plan -- an alliance-wide commitment to have the capability to deploy 30
mechanized battalions, 30 squadrons of strike aircraft, and 30 warships
within 30 days of a go order -- is another indication of NATO’s
willingness to answer Russia’s aggressive moves.
Within
easy range of Putin’s unmarked armies, Eastern Europe’s leaders
understand that if Putin follows his Ukraine playbook and covertly
violates the sovereignty of the Baltics, he will force NATO to blink or
fire back. Neither alternative leads to a happy outcome. The former
means NATO is neutralized. The latter means war. The best way to prevent
those dire scenarios is through unity of purpose, allied cohesion,
deterrent military strength, clarity of intent and frank dialogue with
Moscow. That’s how NATO prevented the Cold War from turning hot, and
it’s the best roadmap for Cold War 2.0.
Third,
NATO’s political leaders must do a better job highlighting the stark
differences between Putinism and the principles NATO defends. They
should relentlessly point out the vast freedom gap between Russia and
its neighbors, use international forums to detail Putin’s outlaw
behavior, and offer a platform to Putin’s enemies: journalists,
religious minorities, NGOs, political dissidents. “A little less
détente,” as President Reagan counseled, “and more encouragement to the
dissenters might be worth a lot of armored divisions.”
Related,
allies like Germany need to minimize their exposure and connection to
Putin. In 2009, NATO urged members to pursue a “stable and reliable
energy supply” and “diversification of routes, suppliers and energy
sources.” In 2018, NATO declared, “It is essential to ensure that the
members of the alliance are not vulnerable to political or coercive
manipulation of energy, which constitutes a potential threat.” Poland
has cut its dependence on Putin’s Russia and turned to the U.S. for
liquefied natural gas. Germany should follow Poland’s example.
Finally,
NATO leaders must see Russia as it is, not as they hope it to be. The
implication of President Obama’s well-intentioned “Russian reset” was
that Putin wanted a partner, if only Washington would change its
approach to Moscow. That hypothesis has been obliterated. Putin’s Russia
invaded Georgia during the “with us or against us” Bush administration,
dismembered Ukraine during the “lead from behind” Obama administration,
and armed the Taliban during the “wouldn’t it be nice if we actually
got along with Russia?” Trump administration. Putin -- not Washington -- is the problem. And NATO is part of the solution -- still.