ASCF REPORT 4.1.20
BY ALAN W. DOWD
The
following is the second of a two-part series celebrating President
Reagan’s central role in winning the Cold War, describing his means and
methods in pursuit of that goal, and refuting a recent essay that argues otherwise. Among other things, that essay made the
eyerolling case that: Gorbachev was opposed to increasing military
spending; Reagan’s hardline rollback policy did not force Gorbachev to
liberalize and did not contribute to the collapse of the Soviet Union;
SDI had no significant effect on Soviet strategic decision-making;
Gorbachev opposed building a Soviet answer to SDI; and defense buildups
(like the one Reagan undertook) don’t affect the behavior of
authoritarian regimes (like the Soviet Union). The previous issue addressed the first two of these assertions. This issue addresses the other three.
>SDI had no significant effect on Soviet strategic decision-making.
None other than former Soviet Foreign Minister Aleksandr Bessmertnykh credits Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) with accelerating the decline of the USSR. A pair of Reagan-Gorbachev
summits showed Moscow how serious Reagan was about building SDI to
shield America.
The Geneva summit, held in 1985, was the first Reagan-Gorbachev
summit. During the meeting, Reagan said three things that had a profound
impact on Gorbachev and on the Cold War.
First, he declared, “We don’t mistrust each other because we are armed; we are armed because we mistrust each other.”
Next, he explained the causes of America’s mistrust of the Soviet
Union, detailing for Gorbachev the full litany of Soviet acts of
aggression since 1917. “No previous president had seen fit to say this
directly to the Soviets ever,” historian Derek Leebaert recalls.
Finally,
he put Gorbachev on notice: “You can’t win this arms race.” It wasn’t a
boast or a threat—just a matter of economic might and political will.
In Reagan, America had a leader eager to bring both to bear.
Although that summit ended with little progress, the two men agreed
to meet about a year later in Reykjavik, where Gorbachev proposed
sweeping cutbacks in missiles and warheads, cuts to conventional forces,
even the denuclearization of Europe—all in exchange for just one concession: SDI. Soviet foreign ministry aide Sergei Tarasenko recounts that Gorbachev’s mission at Reykjavik was “to kill SDI.”
But Reagan wouldn’t budge, and the summit ended with no progress. A BBC headline expresses what most observers thought at the time: “Reykjavik Summit
Ends in Failure.” But the summit was anything but a failure for those
who wanted the Cold War to end in a manner favorable to the West. As
Zbigniew Brzezinski (President Carter’s national security advisor)
explained a few years later, Reykjavik is where the Cold War was won.
Less than five months after Reykjavik, Reagan and Gorbachev met
again. And this time Gorbachev agreed to the INF Treaty, with no linkage
to SDI. “The Soviets blinked,” Reagan wrote in his journal after inking
the INF deal. The Cold War was melting away—and so was the Soviet
Empire.
>Gorbachev rejected proposals to build a Soviet response to SDI.
In fact, before and during Gorbachev’s time in power, the Soviets were developing—and deployed—anti-ballistic missile systems.
Martin and Annelise Anderson detail this in their book “Reagan’s
Secret War.” They describe the sophisticated ABM system that protected
Moscow during Gorbachev’s tenure; note that the Soviets tasked 10,000
scientists to ABM research in the 1980s; quote a 1985 speech by Reagan
that revealed the Soviets were “doing advanced research on their own
version of SDI”; and cite a declassified letter from Reagan to
Gorbachev, which called the Soviet leader to task for deploying a
weapons system capable of striking missiles flying through space—even as
Gorbachev disingenuously derided SDI as a “space-strike weapon.”
>The notion that military buildups and tough talk can force authoritarian regimes to adjust their behavior is “ahistorical.”
Well,
we know the converse certainly holds. Consider, for example, the West’s
military drawdowns after World War I and how that gave rise to
aggression by the Axis. Similarly, America’s post-Vietnam drawdown
opened the door to Soviet expansion.
As for the impact of military buildups and tough talk, TR’s blunt warnings to Imperial Germany during the Venezuela Crisis—backed by a massive show of force in the Caribbean—clearly forced the Kaiser to adjust his behavior. Likewise, Ike’s warnings that he was prepared to use atomic bombs against China—backed by his
reputation and his massive nuclear buildup—ended the Korean War and
shielded Taiwan from invasion.
The correlation between Reagan’s buildup and Gorbachev’s foreign-policy transformation is equally strong.
The decade of détente, which preceded Reagan’s election, had
undermined America’s strength and international standing. So, Reagan
pushed through a massive increase in defense spending—$1.6 trillion over
six years. Gorbachev knew Reagan was right about the arms race he had
inherited. He knew he could not keep pace with Reagan’s rebuild and the
technological advances it delivered. And Reagan knew that Gorbachev’s
empire was financially and morally bankrupt. The growth rate of the
centralized Soviet economy had plummeted from the 5-percent annual clip
of the 1960s to just one percent. And the USSR was diverting 30 percent
of GDP to its military (while the U.S. was spending around 6 percent of
GDP on defense). Gorbachev recalls, “We were increasingly behind the
West…I was ashamed for my country—perhaps the country with the richest
resources on earth, and we couldn’t provide toothpaste for our people.”
It was the Reagan’s buildup that pushed the Soviet Union into such a dire dead end—and forced Gorbachev to sue for peace.
Interestingly,
Gorbachev himself admits that the peaceful end of the Cold War depended
on Reagan as much as it depended on him. “I deem Ronald Reagan a great
president…a statesman who, despite all disagreements that existed
between our countries at the time, displayed foresight and determination
to meet our proposals halfway and change our relations for the
better.”
Even more interesting is that Reagan predicted—in 1963—how the Cold
War would end: “In an all-out arms race, our system is stronger, and
eventually the enemy gives up the race as a hopeless cause. Then, a
noble nation, believing in peace, extends the hand of friendship and
says there is room in the world for both of us.”
It was Reagan
who extended that open hand of friendship and offered a soft landing to
the broke and broken Soviet regime—but only after he played hard ball to
win the Cold War.