ASCF REPORT 7.6.21
BY ALAN W. DOWD
The previous issue discussed the emergence of an ad hoc partnership of democracies and the
need for a formal and full-fledged “alliance of democracies”—a term
President Biden has used. This issue explores the other side of the
equation.
Chaos
Some argue that formalizing an international
alliance of democracies will lead to the emergence of an opposing bloc
of autocracies. Sadly, such a bloc already exists.
Russia
and China serve as patrons and protectors of fellow tyrannies in North
Korea, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and Belarus. The Beijing-Moscow axis
is working to lure the likes of Turkey, Serbia and Hungary into the
autocratic fold; exploiting cyberspace to weaken democratic intuitions
throughout the Free World; and sowing chaos from the Arctic to the Himalayas, the South China Sea to the South Pacific, the Black Sea to the Persian Gulf.
Like
the USSR, the PRC has the capacity and intent to challenge the free
world across every domain and region. And like the USSR, the PRC has no
interest in joining an international system premised on free government
and free markets—only to supplant it. Beijing is amassing the economic,
industrial, cultural, technological and military tools to do that.
China
is a country of 1.3 billion. Its GDP is $14.1 trillion. Its annual
military expenditure has eclipsed $260 billion (mushrooming 517 percent since 2000). It has plans for “security and strategic coordination”
with Russia and a laser-like focus on absorbing or pacifying its
neighbors. On the economic-industrial front, China is the world’s top
manufacturing nation, top exporting nation and second-largest economy.
Beijing’s cultural reach is evident in everything from its influence over Hollywood to the 480 Confucius Institutes around the world (designated by
Washington as “part of the Chinese Communist Party’s global influence
and propaganda apparatus”). On the tech front, Beijing is conducting a
relentless cybersiege of the free world. PRC cyber-soldiers have penetrated defense firms; stolen everything from F-35 schematics to OPM’s employee
database; and engaged in “a massive program” of election interference,
according to national-security officials. On the military front, China
has a 350-ship navy (now the world’s largest), a growing presence in
space and is doubling its nuclear arsenal.
Like
the USSR, Putin’s Russia has designs on dominating its neighbors,
undermining the international system and pushing the U.S. out of Europe.
During
Putin’s reign, Russia has violated nuclear-weapons treaties, launched
wars to annex parts of Ukraine and occupy parts of Georgia, conducted
cyberwar against Estonia, hacked the U.S. power grid and National Nuclear Security Administration, armed Taliban forces waging war against U.S. personnel operating under UN
mandate, employed military force to prop up regimes that are gassing
(Syria) and starving (Venezuela) their own people, and planted bases along the rim of the Mediterranean.
Moreover, Russia is using intelligence agencies and cyber-soldiers to:
conduct strategic-influence operations targeting the Free World’s
political institutions; sway public opinion via false-front organizations and via manipulation of traditional media; exacerbate racial tensions and religious divisions in the West via social media; generate and spread fake news about deployed NATO personnel; plant lies claiming that COVID-19 is a bioweapon made in the West; and portray governments in the U.S. and Europe as unable to meet the needs of their citizens.
With
the help of Moscow and Beijing, Iran has emerged as a regional
hegemon—setting up outposts in Syria, fomenting wars and revolts in
Yemen and Bahrain, consolidating its position in Iraq, and conducting
provocative missile tests at home and assassinations abroad.
To
be sure, these nations have different ethnic makeups, different
political and economic systems, different views on religion and faith,
but they have one important thing in common: They are ardent enemies of
freedom, free government and the Free World.
Together or Alone?
America
cannot counter the autocratic bloc or withstand the surging autocracy
tide alone. Yes, the U.S. boasts a $21.4-trillion GDP and spends more
than $700 billion on defense annually, but the U.S. has a billion fewer
people than China, a 298-ship Navy,
a defense budget that’s shrinking as a share of federal outlays, a
smaller nuclear arsenal than Russia, an enormous geographic disadvantage
when it comes to defending its interests in Europe and the
Indo-Pacific, and security commitments spread around the
world—commitments that often exceed capabilities.
Consider the
demands on America’s carrier fleet: In May, when the Pentagon needed a
carrier to support the Afghanistan pullout, the USS Ronald Reagan was redeployed to the Arabian Sea from its home region in the Western Pacific—leaving
the Indo-Pacific without the stabilizing presence of an American
aircraft carrier. This is not a new problem. Consider the Trump
administration’s sleight-of-hand with the USS Carl Vinson in 2017 and the revelation that all six East Coast-based carriers were docked rather than deployed in fall
2019. Consider that when President Obama ordered warplanes from the USS
George H.W. Bush to blunt the ISIS blitzkrieg, CNO Adm. Jonathan
Greenert admitted that “they stopped their sorties” over Afghanistan to
do so. And when Tehran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in 2012,
CENTCOM’s request for an extra aircraft carrier was denied because the carrier was needed in the Pacific.
The
point: America’s military can strive to be present everywhere it’s
needed, but it cannot be omnipresent. America’s military is strong, but
it’s not invincible. America’s
economic-industrial-technological-military capabilities are vast, but
they are not limitless—and simply not enough to simultaneously contain a
rising China, face down a revisionist Russia and break a revolutionary
jihadist movement.
The good news is that
America isn’t alone. Our democratic allies serve as force-multipliers,
sources of moral and material support, and layers of strategic depth. As
President Biden points out, “When we join together with fellow
democracies, our strength more than doubles.”
Indeed,
the U.S in partnership with democracies in the Americas, Europe, the
Indo-Pacific and Middle East enfolds some 2.8 billion people, 71 percent
of global GDP, 65 percent of global defense spending, more than 7
million men under arms, and what former JCS Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen
once called “a thousand-ship navy.”
America
and its democratic allies have the means—the political legitimacy,
economic capacity, military strength—to rescue the Free World. What
remains to be seen is if they have the will.
As
President Reagan said when the forces of tyranny were far stronger—and
the world’s roster of democracies far smaller—“We must take actions to
assist the campaign for democracy.” The Free World took those actions in
the 20th century; it should do no less in the 21st. Forging and
formalizing an Alliance of Democracies is the next step.