A State Department report[i]gives us a sense of how grave the threats facing our nation are: Our adversary “is animated by a new fanatic faith, antithetical to our own” and “seeks to impose its absolute authority over the rest of the world” by “waging…political, economic and psychological warfare…weakening the relative world position of the United States...[and] disrupting its traditional institutions by means short of war.” Equally troubling, “Every institution of our society is an instrument…sought to stultify and turn against our purposes…The integrity and vitality of our system is in greater jeopardy than ever.”

One caveat: This report was drafted in 1950. Yet the assessments and overall thrust of National Security Council Paper 68 (NSC-68) remain relevant today, as Washington tries to navigate the threats posed by China, Russia and jihadist terror. 

Starting Point
NSC-68 described the nature of the threat America faced and offered a plan for how to address that threat: “By all means short of war,” America would seek to “block further expansion of Soviet power…induce a retraction of the Kremlin's control and influence” and “foster the seeds of destruction within the Soviet system…to the point of modifying its behavior to conform to generally accepted international standards.”

NSC-68 argued that America needed to lead the “free world” toward “common purpose,” and it made clear that Americans had to grasp the threat. “The whole success of the proposed program hangs ultimately on recognition by this government, the American people and all free peoples that the Cold War is in fact a real war in which the survival of the free world is at stake.”

Turning East
Like the USSR, the PRC has the capacity and intent to challenge the free world across every domain and region. And like the USSR, the PRC has no interest in joining an international system premised on free government and free markets—only to supplant it. Beijing is amassing the economic, industrial, cultural, technological and military tools to do that.

On the economic-industrial front, China is the world’s top manufacturing nation, top exporting nation and second-largest economy.[ii]Beijing’s cultural reach is evident in everything from its influence over Hollywood[iii] to its 480 Confucius Institutes around the world (designated by Washington as part of Beijing’s “propaganda apparatus”[iv][v]). On the tech front, Beijing is conducting a relentless cybersiege of the free world, penetrating[vi] defense firms, stealing everything from F-35 schematics to OPM employee records,[vii]and engaging in election interference.[viii]On the military front, China has the world’s largest navy and a swelling nuclear arsenal.[ix]

Like the USSR, Xi Jinping’s China is leveraging its economic-industrial-military clout to: carve out a sphere of control (see the South China Sea), intimidate its neighbors (see Taiwan, India, Japan, Philippines), build an anti-Western bloc (see Russia, Serbia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Venezuela[x]), buy loyalty via development (see the Belt and Road Initiative), gain a toehold in strategically located regions (see China’s control over ports in 18 countries[xi]), use proxies to distract Washington (see North Korea), and erode the existing international order (Xi promises “a more just and reasonable new world order”[xii]).

To be sure, the NSC-68 roadmap can take us only so far in dealing with this century’s communist behemoth. America and the USSR were literally walled-off from one another, while America and the PRC are economically intertwined. However, what NSC-68 warned during the USSR’s ascendance is true of the PRC’s: If America retreats, our foe will secure an “imposition of its kind of order in the world.”

Backtracking to the USSR
If China embodies the dangers of a rising empire, Russia represents the dangers of a dying empire. A declining empire can be as volatile as a rising empire—especially when that empire fields the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. NSC-68 reminded policymakers that the world had endured in a brief timespan the “collapse of five empires.” The consequence: war and disorder.

The international system built from the rubble of those broken empires—founded on liberal political and economic institutions, open alliances, and accepted norms of behavior—is under assault by Russia. During Vladimir Putin’s reign, Russia has violated nuclear-weapons treaties[xiii], launched wars to occupy parts of Ukraine and Georgia, conducted cyberwar against Estonia, hacked the U.S. power grid,[xiv]armed Taliban forces waging war against U.S. personnel operating under UN mandate[xv], and militarily propped up regimes that are gassing (Syria) and starving (Venezuela) their own people. Soviet Russia made similar blunt-force moves. But as NSC-68 noted, Moscow’s “preferred technique is to subvert by infiltration and intimidation.” Concluding that Moscow sought to use “every institution of our society…to stultify and turn against our purposes,” NSC-68 warned that Moscow aimed to prevent these institutions “from serving our ends and thus to make them sources of confusion in our economy, our culture and our body politic.”

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Led by a former KGB intelligence officer, Russia is using intelligence agencies and cyber-proxies to: target critical infrastructure; generate fake news stories about U.S. troops and COVID-19’s origins; sway public opinion via false-front organizations;[xvi]exacerbate divisions via social media[xvii]; and conduct strategic-influence operations targeting U.S. political institutions.[xviii][xix][xx]Putin’s goal is not to choose winners and losers, but to weaken the winners and sow doubt among the losers, destabilize political institutions, splinter the free world, erode confidence in liberal democracy, and normalize business-suit autocracy.[xxi]

Reversing Revolutions
Centralized atheist states like the USSR and PRC would seem to have little in common with an amorphous network of theocratic organizations and regimes like Iran, the Taliban, al-Qaeda and ISIS. But if the tactics of communists and jihadists are different, their ends are similar: Both communism and jihadism are revolutionary transnational movements that seek to upend the international system.

NSC-68 concluded that the USSR’s goal was “destruction…of this republic.” Nikita Khrushchev declared, “socialism will…conquer capitalism.”[xxii]Xi argues, “capitalism is bound to die out.”[xxiii]Iran’s constitution calls for the spread of Islamist “revolution at home and abroad,” “formation of a single world community” under Shiite teachings, and “liberation of all deprived and oppressed peoples.” The leaders of Sunni al-Qaeda and Sunni ISIS rally their followers to “strike blows against American interests”[xxiv]and “destroy the idol of democracy.”[xxv] The Taliban is committed to enforcing strict sharia law.[xxvi]These organizations and regimes may not be allied in a technical sense, but they are aligned in their means (terrorism), ends (upending the international system) and main enemy (America).

Now, as when NSC-68 was issued, these enemies are animated by a “fanatic faith, antithetical to our own.” Now, as then, success depends on recognition by “all free people” that the war on terror “is in fact a real war.” For evidence: Iran’s leaders have the blood of 603 American troops on their hands. Given that they allowed al-Qaeda to use Afghanistan as a launchpad for 9/11, Taliban leaders have the blood of thousands of Americans on their hands.[xxvii]Between 2015 and 2020, ISIS and al-Qaeda footsoldiers mounted a string of bloody attacks in Pensacola, San Bernardino, Orlando, Paris and Nice.[xxviii]



Values
NSC-68offers five keys for containing and outlasting rising empires, revisionist regimes and revolutionary movements.

First, we must “affirm our values in the conduct of our national life.” These include “freedom, tolerance, the importance of the individual and the supremacy of reason over will.” Presidents should promote these values at the State of the Union, G7 and NATO summits, and the UN by: drawing attention to China’s prison camps, Uighur concentration camps and absorption of Hong Kong; shining light on Russia’s political assassinations, treaty violations and vivisection of Ukraine; naming and shaming regimes that enable jihadism; condemning the enemies of religious freedom (whether they prevent worship or require it); and giving voice to victims of oppression. “A little less détente,” President Ronald Reagan argued, “and more encouragement to the dissenters might be worth a lot of armored divisions.”

Tools
Second, America must invest more in defense. NSC-68, historian Paul Johnson writes, “enshrined the proposition that America, as the greatest free power, had moral, political and ideological obligations to preserve free institutions throughout the world—and must equip herself with the military means to discharge them.”[xxix]

The 20th century taught Americans that military weakness invites aggression, while military strength deters it.[xxx]Yet with China on the rise, Russia on the march and the Middle East on fire, today’s defense budget is just 3.1 percent of GDP.[xxxi]The Cold War average was more than twice that. “Budgetary considerations will need to be subordinated to the stark fact that our very independence as a nation may be at stake,” NSC-68 concluded. 

Allies
Third, we must recognize the importance of allies. Defending the free world, NSC-68 noted, “cannot be accomplished by us alone.” China is a country of 1.3 billion. Its annual military expenditure has mushroomed 517 percent since 2000.[xxxii]It has a 350-ship navy and a laser-like focus on absorbing or controlling its neighbors.[xxxiii]

The U.S. has a billion fewer people than China, a 297-ship Navy, a defense budget that’s shrinking as a share of federal outlays, and security commitments spread around the world. However, the U.S. combined with democracies in the Americas, Europe, the Indo-Pacific and Middle East enfolds some 2.8 billion people, 65 percent of global defense spending[xxxiv], and what former JCS Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen calls “a thousand-ship navy.”[xxxv]These allies are force-multipliers and outer rings of our security—providing both strategic depth and frontline support.

To deter China, Japan has increased defense spending ten years running, Australia by 40 percent the next decade, India by 49 percent the past decade.[xxxvi] Australia, Japan, Britain, Canada and France are promoting freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.[xxxvii]America, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, India, Thailand and Singapore are repurposing old alliances and building new partnerships.[xxxviii]Their goal—to borrow the words of NSC-68—is to “block further expansion” of China’s power and “induce a retraction” of China’s “control and influence.”

To deter Russia, NATO’s European and Canadian members have added 131,000 troopsto their ranks and $130 billion in fresh defense spending since 2016.[xxxix]Germany, Britain and Canada are spearheading NATO’s Baltic battlegroups.[xl]

France, Britain, Netherlands, Poland and Australia are stalwart partners in the fight against jihadists.[xli]Qatar, Bahrain, Germany, Britain, Norway, Turkey and others supported the humanitarian operation at Kabul airport.[xlii]Israel is degrading Iran’s presence in Syria and partnering with the U.S. to target al-Qaeda.[xliii]

[ii]https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2078rank.htmlhttps://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/countries-manufacturing-trade-exports-economics/https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/https://fortune.com/global500/2020/search/?fg500_country=China

[iii]https://www.wsj.com/articles/disneys-mulan-tops-china-box-office-amid-controversy-11600024568https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2237717/Red-Dawn-remake-swapped-Chinese-flags-insignia-North-Korean-ones-fear-losing-billion-dollar-box-office.html  https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/22/media/top-gun-flags-intl-hnk/index.html

[iv]https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/pompeo-press-his-campaign-against-chinese-telecommucations-companies-during-trip-to-eastern-europe/2020/08/13/e2884ae0-dd86-11ea-b4af-72895e22941d_story.htmlhttps://www.state.gov/designation-of-the-confucius-institute-u-s-center-as-a-foreign-mission-of-the-prc/

[v]https://www.confucius.ucla.edu/about-us/confucius-institutes-worldwidehttps://www.state.gov/designation-of-the-confucius-institute-u-s-center-as-a-foreign-mission-of-the-prc/

[vi]https://www.ft.com/content/9dba9ba2-5a3b-11dc-9bcd-0000779fd2achttps://www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-security/report-identifies-widespread-cyber-spying/2011/07/29/gIQAoTUmqI_story.html

[vii]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cyber/u-s-accuses-china-linked-hackers-of-stealing-coronavirus-research-idUSKBN22P2CShttps://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-charges-five-chinese-military-hackers-cyber-espionage-against-us-corporations-and-labor  https://thediplomat.com/2015/01/new-snowden-documents-reveal-chinese-behind-f-35-hack/

[viii] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-china/trump-security-adviser-says-china-has-biggest-election-interference-program-idUSKBN25V2NY

[ix]https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF

[x]https://www.aiddata.org/china-official-financehttps://warontherocks.com/2020/03/how-china-is-exploiting-the-pandemic-to-export-authoritarianism/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-serbia-china-huawei/serbia-chooses-links-with-china-to-develop-economy-telecoms-despite-u-s-warning-campaign-idUSKCN2592ANhttps://thediplomat.com/2019/01/serbia-chinas-open-door-to-the-balkans/

[xi]https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/02/06/china-is-making-substantial-investment-in-ports-and-pipelines-worldwide

[xii]https://qz.com/916382/chinese-president-xi-jinping-has-vowed-to-lead-the-new-world-order/

[xiii]https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_167179.htm?selectedLocale=en

[xiv]https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/530729-energy-department-nuclear-agency-breached-as-part-of-massive-governmenthttps://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/530784-lawmakers-ask-whether-massive-hack-amounted-to-act-of-warhttps://www.npr.org/2018/03/23/596044821/russia-hacked-u-s-power-grid-so-what-will-the-trump-administration-do-about-it

[xv]https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/26/596933077/top-u-s-commander-in-afghanistan-accuses-russia-of-aiding-taliban  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43533138https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/24/russia-is-sending-weapons-to-taliban-top-u-s-general-confirms/   

[xvi]https://web.archive.org/web/20180825005023/https://freedomhouse.org/article/new-report-freedom-press-2017-press-freedom-s-dark-horizon

[xvii]https://americansecuritycouncilfoundation.org/protecting-the-republic/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/russian-operatives-used-facebook-ads-to-exploit-divisions-over-black-political-activism-and-muslims/2017/09/25/4a011242-a21b-11e7-ade1-76d061d56efa_story.html?utm_term=.a6bcc6c5fb9a https://money.cnn.com/2017/10/18/media/black-fist-russia-self-defense-classes/index.html

[xviii] https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36927523 https://time.com/5565991/russia-influence-2016-election/

[xix]https://www.rferl.org/a/us-russia-china-spinning-coronavirus-conspiracies-to-blame-west/30597680.htmlhttps://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/troll-army-forgery-lithuania-denounces-fake-report-that-us-soldiers-stole-car

[xx]https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/joint-statement-from-dos-doj-dod-dhs-odni-fbi-nsa-and-cisa-on-preparations-for-super-tuesdayhttps://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/09/07/alleged-russian-political-meddling-documented-27-countries-since-2004/619056001/https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/seeing-trump-as-unpredictable-china-would-prefer-he-not-win-reelection-intelligence-official-says/2020/08/07/98e1ad8c-d8e0-11ea-aff6-220dd3a14741_story.html

[xxi]https://in.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-krebs/former-head-of-u-s-election-security-calls-trump-team-fraud-allegations-farcical-idINKBN28801Ihttps://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2522https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-M8EG5Q1QU4https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/irans-rouhani-next-us-administration-should-make-up-for-trumps-mistakes-648400https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/russia-publicly-frets-over-us-election-uncertainty-but-likely-relishes-it/

[xxii]https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP73B00296R000200040087-1.pdf

[xxiii]https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/31/xi-jinping-in-translation-chinas-guiding-ideology/

[xxiv] https://fas.org/irp/world/para/ubl-fbis.pdf

[xxv] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/the-isis-primer

[xxvi]https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/PW102-Rhetoric-Ideology-and-Organizational-Structure-of-the-Taliban-Movement.pdf

[xxvii]https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2019/04/04/iran-killed-more-us-troops-in-iraq-than-previously-known-pentagon-says/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/militia-attacks-on-americans-in-iraq-becoming-more-audacious-us-wrestling-with-how-to-respond/2020/03/27/7b31d76c-6d38-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html  https://www.legion.org/landingzone/249034/navy-tomorrow

[xxviii]https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/17/world/europe/isis-nice-france-attack.htmlhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34818994https://apnews.com/article/vienna-shooter-tried-to-join-isis-53282a7da4f3a1903358b4b16d8a17a6https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/world/middleeast/islamic-state-san-bernardino-massacre.html  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-florida-shooting-claim/islamic-state-claims-responsibility-for-orlando-nightclub-shooting-idUSKCN0YY0VUhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/pensacola-florida-base-shooting-al-qaeda-fbi-justice-department/

[xxix] Paul Johnson Modern Times, p.442.

[xxx]https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2019-01/54918-Outlook.pdf and CRS, “National Defense Outlays as a Percentage of GNP/GDP, FY1910-2003.”

[xxxi]https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-116hhrg41368/html/CHRG-116hhrg41368.htm

[xxxii]https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/https://www.airforcemag.com/china-now-tops-us-in-shipbuilding-missiles-and-air-defense-dod-says/

[xxxiii]https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/china-appeals-to-russia-and-other-regional-allies-to-counter-us-influence

[xxxiv] NATO, Japan, ROK, Australia, India, Israel, Colombia, Chile, Brazil equals approximately $1.25 trillion, divided by $1.917 trillion https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-military-expenditure-sees-largest-annual-increase-decade-says-sipri-reaching-1917-billion 

[xxxv]https://www.jcs.mil/About/The-Joint-Staff/Chairman/Admiral-Michael-Glenn-Mullen/https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/https://www.thebalance.com/world-s-largest-economy-3306044https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.TOTL.P1?locations=INhttps://www.nato.int /nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2019_11/20191129_pr-2019-123-en.pdf

[xxxvi]https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/02/04/new-weapons-purchases-suffer-under-indias-latest-defense-budget/
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.CD?locations=IN

[xxxvii]https://combinedmaritimeforces.com/https://news.sky.com/story/uk-takes-charge-of-coalition-gulf-mission-to-protect-ships-from-iran-11921404

[xxxviii]https://.wsj.com/articles/u-s-military-is-offered-new-bases-in-the-pacific-11599557401?mc_cid=26ea178aa0&mc_eid=0a51c5fb81https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-vietnam-2/

[xxxix]https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-nato-secretary-general-stoltenberg-11-meeting-london-united-kingdom/  https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2019_06/20190625_PR2019-069-EN.pdf

[xl]https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/06/08/nato-chief-seeks-to-forge-deeper-ties-in-chinas-neighborhood/https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_176197.htm

[xli]https://www.defense.gov/observe/photo-gallery/igphoto/2001740145/www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/107995.htm

[xlii]https://www.jcs.mil/Media/News/News-Display/Article/2764159/readout-of-chairman-of-the-joint-chiefs-of-staff-gen-milleys-phone-calls-thanki/  https://www.state.gov/gratitude-to-the-uae-for-facilitating-the-transit-of-u-s-citizens-embassy-personnel-and-others-from-afghanistan/https://www.voanews.com/us-afghanistan-troop-withdrawal/erdogan-reiterates-interest-securing-kabul-airport-faces-criticismhttps://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkish-soldiers-extend-helping-hand-to-afghan-baby-at-kabul-airporthttps://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/22/biden-extends-perimeter-kabul-airport-506537

[xliii]https://thehill.com/policy/international/middle-east-north-africa/526024-top-al-qaida-operative-tracked-and-killed-by-us  https://www.mideastcenter.org/post/timeline-of-israel-iran-tensions-in-syria-and-the-region