REAL CLEAR DEFENSE 3.10.22
BY ALAN W. DOWD
Ukraine’s tenacious defense of freedom in the face of Vladimir
Putin’s criminal war has inspired the world, reawakened NATO, and
re-reminded Americans that our ideals and interests are woven together.
President Joe Biden should seize this moment to rebuild, fortify and
expand what he aptly called the "wall of strength" embodied by the freedom fighters of Ukraine.
The blueprint for this effort is found in what President Franklin
Roosevelt described as "armed defense of democratic existence."
First, America must reconstitute its deterrent military strength by
pursuing, in FDR's words, "a swift and driving increase in our armament
production."
America cannot deter war or defend the Free World on the cheap. In a
time of metastasizing threats—backdropped by Putin's invasion of Georgia
and the first invasion of Ukraine, Beijing's military buildup and
militarization of illegal manmade islands in the South China Sea, Iran's
expansion across the Middle East, North Korea's nuclear tests and
missile tests, the ISIS blitzkrieg through Syria and Iraq—the bipartisan
gamble known as sequestration guillotined the defense budget from 4.7
percent of GDP in 2009 to 3 percent by 2016. Even today, the U.S. spends
just 3.2 percent of GDP on defense; the Cold War average was more than
twice that.
To contain this axis of tyrants and terrorists—and to keep Cold War
II from turning any hotter—America must shift toward Cold War levels of
defense spending. With expenditures on new (Affordable Care Act) and
unforeseen (COVID relief) domestic programs consuming an ever-greater
share of the federal budget the past decade, this won’t be easy. As
historian Niall Ferguson observes, “Americans like security. But they
like Social Security more than they like national security.” New
generations of Americans—those with no memory of cold wars or world
wars—are learning that there can be no Social Security, which is to say,
no social safety-net programs, without national security. “Security
against foreign danger,” as James Madison explained, is “an avowed and
essential object of the American Union.” Awake to the danger, key
lawmakers are now talking about a much larger defense budget.
Second, allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific must join the rearmament effort. The latter group is a step ahead in this regard: South Korea’s defense budget is 64-percent larger (as a share of GPD) than that of European NATO. Japan has increased defense spending 10 consecutive years, is upconverting warships to deploy F-35s, and is discussing Cold War-style nuclear-sharing
arrangements. Australia is expanding basing arrangements for U.S. air
and ground forces, increasing defense spending by 40 percent, and partnering with the U.S. and Britain to add nuclear-powered submarines to its arsenal.
Europe will likely follow suit. Defense spending was inching upward in Britain and Europe even before the siege of
Ukraine. Germany’s February transformation points to far more dramatic
and rapid increases. In a stunning reversal, Germany announced that it’s nearly doubling defense spending to 2 percent of GDP (something Washington and NATO have been begging Berlin to do since 2006); unveiled a massive $112.7-billion rearmament fund leaning toward modernizing its aging air force with F-35s. Post-Ukraine, Germany will no longer be a free-rider in the Free World.
Third, the Free World must help free peoples defend themselves. "Let
us say to the democracies," in FDR's words, "We Americans are vitally
concerned in your defense of freedom. We are putting forth our energies,
our resources, and our organizing powers to give you the strength to
regain and maintain a free world."
Ukraine illustrates how even an outmatched force—if committed and
equipped with the right mix of weapons—can hold back a full-spectrum
military power. Yet Russia’s rampage through Ukraine also reminds us
that helping free nations harden their territory against invasion is
preferable to scrambling to help them try to claw it back. FDR’s promise
to devote America’s energies, resources and organizing powers—what he
called the “great arsenal of democracy”—to those willing to fight for freedom prepared the
battlespace for U.S. entry into World War II and shaped how America
waged Cold War I. Vowing to “support free peoples who are resisting
attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures,” the
Truman Doctrine provided a roadmap for Cold War I. And declaring that
“support for freedom-fighters is self-defense,” the Reagan Doctrine
hastened the end of Cold War I.
In these early hours of Cold War II, the Biden administration should
invite democratic partners to join the U.S. in pooling their energies,
resources and organizing powers to help nations in the crosshairs of
tyrant regimes defend their freedom. Call it the Biden Doctrine. The
Free World’s effort in Ukraine can serve as a template. Now, as in the
1940s and 1980s, support for freedom fighters is a matter of
self-defense.
In Europe, this translates into ongoing material support to sustain a
free Ukraine and its heroic defenders. NATO is off to a good start in
this regard: The U.S. has shipped small-arms ammunition, mortar and
artillery shells, antitank systems, Stinger antiaircraft missiles, and grenade launchers. Britain has delivered antitank missiles. The Balts have sent antiaircraft and antitank weapons, Poland antiaircraft weapons, the Czech Republic assault rifles, Turkey ground-attack drones, Germany antitank weapons and surface-to-air missiles, Canada and Denmark antitank weapons, Spain ammunition and RPGs. Even neutral Sweden and Finland have delivered thousands of antitank systems. All told, 28 countries are shipping military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in its fight for survival.
Even if Kyiv falls, the weapons should keep flowing into a
Putin-occupied Ukraine. With Washington working on a
multi-billion-dollar aid package, NATO establishing an “international donor coordination center” for weapons delivery, and new weapons and pledges coming daily, there’s every indication that Ukraine will make Putin’s regime bleed for a long time.
NATO should bolster Kosovo against Russian interference and outright
subversion. Beyond Ukraine, defensive weapons should flow to Georgia and Moldova (where Russian outposts are bitterly opposed). And NATO should remove any obstacles standing in the way of Sweden and/or Finland joining the alliance. The invasion of Ukraine has added fuel to the NATO membership movement within both of these long-time neutrals.
With U.S. forces already heavily committed in Poland, NATO should convert its rotational presence in the Baltics into permanent defensive installations (something Washington is finally considering).
In addition, Washington should deploy U.S. ground units in each of the
Balts. There’s a reason U.S. forces were based in West Berlin throughout
the Cold War, along the 38th Parallel since 1953, in Kuwait since 1991
and Kosovo since 1999. It’s the same reason Poles cheered the arrival of American soldiers after Putin’s first invasion
of Ukraine: American troops make it clear that crossing this line means
you are going to war against the United States—no ambiguity or doubts
about the consequences.
If Putin survives the guerrilla war, financial onslaught and
diplomatic isolation he's unleashed upon himself, this "wall of
strength" in Europe will help him see that his plans for a reconstituted
Russian Empire will not and cannot succeed. As Churchill said of
Putin's predecessors, "There is nothing they admire so much as
strength."
In the Indo-Pacific, the Free World should fortify Taiwan’s island
democracy with “porcupine defenses”—drones capable of swarm attacks,
shoulder-launched antiaircraft missiles, anti-personnel and anti-armor
systems, nondigital communications operable despite cyberattacks, a
citizenry trained in and equipped for small-unit operations. These are
the kinds of countermeasures that have bled Putin’s army. Indeed, Xi
Jinping must be made to understand that
attempting in Taiwan what Putin has done in Ukraine will lead not to
victory parades and an ascendant legacy, but to his soldiers in body
bags, his military hardware in flames, his invasion force, and
international standing in tatters.
Beyond Taiwan, the Quad—enfolding the U.S., India, Australia and
Japan—needs to increase joint military exercises, enhance
interoperability and deepen coordination in every domain. The region’s
thin web of missile defenses must be widened beyond the U.S., Japan and
Australia.
Beijing believes it has checkmated allied maritime power with an
array of "anti-access/area-denial" (A2/AD) missile systems. As
researchers at RAND detail,
the U.S. and partner nations—Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea,
Taiwan, the Philippines—could rapidly field a network of anti-ship
missiles to “challenge Chinese maritime freedom of action should China
choose to use force against its island neighbors.” Indo-Pacific allies
should show Beijing that two can play the A2/AD game.
In the Americas, where Russia long ago reverted to its Cold War
tactics and where China is buying loyalty, access and military toeholds,
Washington should point to Ukraine and Hong Kong as evidence of how
“partnership” with these ruthless regimes ultimately ends.
Here at home, Washington should stop importing oil from Russia (which accounts for 7 percent of U.S. petroleum imports); unleash America’s vast energy endowment (264 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, 327 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Outer Continental Shelf, 3 trillion barrels of oil-shale deposits); and flood the international market with American energy. Of course, this would require a dramatic shift in the administration's full-tilt drive for green energy and rigid pursuit of climate-change goals. As Gen. Martin Dempsey, former Joint Chiefs
chairman, observes, Washington must view "energy as an instrument of
national power."
In response to Putin’s militarization of the Arctic, NATO should coordinate the defense of alliance territory
and interests in the High North—Denmark, Canada, Norway and the U.S.
are NATO members and Arctic states—by standing up an Allied Command-Arctic.
In the Middle East and Africa, the Free World should work with
proxies to deliver punishing blows against Russia's mercenary armies in
Libya and Syria; walk Turkey back from business-suit autocracy; expand
the economic and diplomatic reach of the Abraham Accords (which have
enhanced the security of democratic Israel), and isolate Iran's
terrorist tyranny and punish its acts piracy.
Indeed, from the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean to the South
China Sea and South Pacific, the Free World should surge what ADM Mike
Mullen, former Joint Chiefs chairman, calls a "thousand-ship navy."
Deploying "the best capabilities of all freedom-loving navies of the
world," this navy of navies could promote and preserve freedom of the
seas—and outmaneuver and outmatch the axis of tyrant regimes. A similar
partnership is needed in cyberspace and space. The building blocks are
in place at NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defense Center and within Operation Olympic Defender.
In this effort to restore the Free World’s “wall of strength,” the
words of Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky should be our rally cry: “The
fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride.”
The fight is indeed here.