ASCF Report | 3.2.15
By Alan W. Dowd
As America
focuses on “nation-building here at home,” the world is growing more dangerous
and less stable by the day. If you doubt this, take a look at the latest
headlines. They range from worrisome to terrifying. Let’s start here in the
Western Hemisphere.
“Russian Bombers to Patrol Gulf of Mexico”—Newsweek
Apparently nostalgic for the bad old days of the Cold War, Russia’s defense
minister recently announced Moscow will deploy long-range bombers “to maintain
military presence in the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific, as well as the
Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.” That’s just the latest example of Russian
encroachment in the Americas:
- Russian lawmakers have approved a plan to stand up a satellite-monitoring facility in
Nicaragua.
- Russia is reopening a long-dormant intelligence base in Cuba, has deployed naval and air assets to the
Caribbean to conduct exercises with the Venezuelan military, and has
floated the possibility of basing bombers in Cuba or Venezuela.
- No less than eight countries in South and Central America have purchased arms
from Russia in recent years, with Venezuela, Brazil and Mexico buying
$1.75 billion in Russian weaponry in 2013 alone.
- Russian long-range bombers shuttling between Venezuela and
Nicaragua have been caught violating Colombian airspace. Russian warplanes
are known to refuel in Venezuela.
- Late last year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin wrote
the foreword to a book advocating “the historical and judicial right of
Russia for the return of the lost colonies, Alaska and the Aleutian
Islands.”
“New Deals Shore up China’s Stakes in Venezuela and
Ecuador”—World
Politics Review
Driven by a thirst for oil and other resources, China is aggressively building
its economic portfolio in the Western Hemisphere by inking development and aid
deals across the region. Beijing is using economic links as a springboard to
military-security cooperation:
- A report in a journal of the U.S. Army concludes that
China is “winning a foothold” in the Americas, with Chinese small-arms,
medium artillery, air defenses and ground-attack aircraft flowing into
Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela.
- Jane’s Defense reports China is peddling short-range missiles to
Peru, surveillance equipment to Peru and Brazil, and warship-repair
expertise to Venezuela and Argentina.
- Chinese-made
transport aircraft and armored vehicles have been used by Venezuelan troops to smash anti-authoritarian protests.
- A study by Joint Forces Quarterly says China has “an important and
growing presence in the region’s military institutions.”
“U.S. Military Decimated, Only
‘Marginally Able’ to Defend Nation”—Washington Times
While Beijing and
Moscow build up and build out, Washington is slashing U.S. defense spending.
Thanks to the bipartisan gamble known as sequestration, defense will account
for just 3.2 percent of GDP in 2015, and if current trend lines
hold, America will be investing a scant 2.3 percent of GDP in defense by 2022. The last time America invested less than 3 percent in
defense was, ominously, 1940. The consequences are on full display:
- The
Navy has been ordered to cut surface combatants from 85 ships to 78, stretch the build time of new aircraft
carriers from five to seven years and had to seek a congressional waiver to deploy just 10 carriers (rather
than the legally-mandated 11) while USS Gerald
Ford is completed.Today’s fleet numbers 284 ships—not even close
to what the Navy needs. “For us to meet what combatant commanders
request,” according to Chief of
Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert, “we need a
Navy of 450 ships.”
- Army end strength could shrink to 420,000
active-duty soldiers and perhaps as low as 380,000. The Army hasn’t been
that small since 1940. According to Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ray Odierno, today’s
Army has “the lowest readiness levels” since he entered the service 37 years
ago. Leaked Pentagon documents indicate that
sequestration is producing an Army at “high risk to meet even one major war.”
- The Marine
Corps will shrink to between 150,000 and 175,000. Sixty-two
percent of non-deployed Marine units “are missing some kind of necessary
equipment,” Military Times reports. As Gen. Jim
Amos noted before retiring as Marine Corps Commandant, “We are beyond muscle” and will soon “cut into
bone.”
- The
Air Force is reducing its fleet by 286 planes. Sequestration has forced the Air
Force to ground 33 squadrons. The bomber fleet has shrunk from 173 in 2003 to 144 today, the
fighter/attack fleet from 1,628 to 1,289, the tanker fleet from 325 to 246.
- According
to a Military Times survey of active-duty troops, “Today’s service members say they feel
underpaid, under-equipped and under-appreciated.”
This is the best way to
invite the worst of possibilities: what Churchill
called “temptations to a trial of strength.”
“Vilnius Creates How-To Manual for Dealing with Foreign
Invasion”—Radio Free Europe
Lithuania’s
Defense Ministry is distributing
a new emergency-response manual “to
gird citizens for the possibility of invasion, occupation and armed conflict,”
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports. Ominously titled “How to Act in
Extreme Situations or Instances of War,” the manual aims to help Lithuania’s 3
million citizens prepare for a Ukraine-style invasion by Russia. “When Russia
started its aggression in Ukraine, our citizens here in Lithuania understood
that our neighbor is not friendly,” said Lithuanian Defense Minister Juozas
Olekas.
Given Moscow’s aggressive behavior and Washington’s passive behavior, Lithuania
cannot be accused of overreacting. After all, Russia has annexed parts of Georgia and Ukraine, carved out an armed
Russian zone in eastern Ukraine, increased military spending 108 percent (since
2004), and unveiled a new military doctrine pledging the use of Russia’s armed forces
“to ensure the protection of its citizens outside the Russian Federation.” Given
that there are five million Russians in Ukraine and a million in the
Baltics—and that Putin has reserved for himself the right to determine when,
where and whether they need to be protected—this is a recipe for something much
more complicated than a new cold war.
“China’s Man-Made Islands in Disputed Waters Raise
Worries”—Los Angeles
Times
China is in the midst of what The Wall Street Journal calls “a dramatic
expansion” of construction of artificial islands on and around the disputed reefs sprinkled across the South China Sea.
Satellite imagery indicates that China has built an artificial island covering
75,000 square yards around Hughes Reef. The island includes two piers, a cement
plant and a helicopter pad. According to a Los Angeles Times report, “Dredging around Fiery Cross Reef, a former outcropping
in the Spratly Islands, over the last year has created a new island nearly two
miles long.” Beijing is building similar man-made islands on and around
Johnson South Reef and Gaven Reef, which also lie in disputed waters.
The man-made islands,
complete with air strips and support infrastructure, have obvious military
applications. According to the U.S.-China
Economic and Security Review Commission, “China appears to be expanding and
upgrading military and civilian infrastructure—including radars, satellite
communication equipment, antiaircraft and naval guns, helipads and docks—on
some of the man-made islands.”
“China’s Fast-Growing Defense Budget Worries
Neighbors”—The
Economist
China is boosting its defense
budget by double-digit percentages annually: In 2014, Beijing increased
military spending by 12.2 percent. This follows increases of 10.7 percent in
2013, 11.6 percent in 2012 and 11.2 percent in 2011. China’s military-related
spending has jumped 170 percent the past decade. “By next year,” The New York
Times reports, “China will spend more on defense than Britain, Germany and
France combined.” Here’s the payoff, according to a recent Pentagon study:
- China has “a growing ability to project power at increasingly
longer ranges.”
- The PRC air force deploys more than 2,800 aircraft, not including
unmanned aerial vehicles. Of these, an estimated 600 are considered
“modern” warplanes.
- “China is developing a multi-dimensional program to improve its
capabilities to limit or prevent the use of space-based assets by
adversaries during times of crisis or conflict.”
- China deploys more than 1,000 short-range ballistic missiles and
is fielding “a limited but growing number of conventionally armed medium-range
ballistic missiles,” giving China “the capability to attack large ships,
including aircraft carriers, in the western Pacific.”
- China now
deploys more attack submarines than the U.S.
Navy.
“ISIS Recruiting and Training Kids”—NBC News
ISIS now controls 34,000 square miles of territory—an area the size of
Costa Rica. The terror superpower commands an army larger than Belgium’s and
perhaps larger than Canada’s, has a
$2-billion budget, and reigns over a population of more than 2 million people.
Of course, ISIS is merely one symptom of a much larger global trend:
- There are 41 jihadist-terror groups in 24 countries today—up from 21 in 18 countries
in 2004.
- Boko Haram has murdered, maimed and kidnapped its way through
Nigeria and has carved out a state within a state.
- Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn recently concluded, “According to every metric of significance,
Islamic extremism has grown over the last year.”
- “When the final
accounting is done, 2014 will have been the most lethal year for global
terrorism in the 45 years such data has been compiled,” Director of National
Intelligence James Clapper reported in
February.
Given these trends, it’s no
surprise that Saudi Arabiais building a massive 600-mile wall, ditch and berm barrier along its border
with Iraq in hopes of protecting the oil-rich kingdom from ISIS. The wall will
include 40 watchtowers, 38 communications towers and 32 military posts, as well
as an unspecified number of night-vision cameras, helipads and military
vehicles. Riyadh has deployed an estimated 30,000 troops to the Iraq border
area.
As we
contemplate the danger posed by Sunni jihadism, we should not forget the threat
posed by the Shiite jihadist regime in Iran, which is methodically inching its
way toward the nuclear club. As Henry Kissinger shrewdly observes, Washington has
abandoned the goal of a nuclear-free Iran: “Nuclear talks with Iran began as an
international effort, buttressed by six U.N. resolutions, to deny Iran
the capability
to develop a military nuclear option. They are now an essentially bilateral
negotiation over the scope of that capability through an agreement that
sets a hypothetical limit of one year on an assumed breakout. The impact of
this approach will be to move from preventing proliferation to managing it.”
“Absence of White House Strategy Makes ISIS, Iraq,
Syria, Afghanistan Wars Unwinnable”—U.S. News
and World Report
Can there be any doubt that
there’s a link between these headlines and the Obama administration’s standoff,
hands-off foreign policy? After all, this is the “lead from behind,”
“nation-building at home,” “Don’t do stupid stuff” administration. Regrettably,
the record increasingly suggests that these slogans are little more than euphemisms
for a policy of disengagement and inaction—a policy that is failing.
*Dowd is a senior fellow with the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes The Dowd Report, a monthly review of international events and their impact on U.S. national security.