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Capstones | 10.28.15 By Alan W. Dowd
After months of warning Beijing that the
U.S. Navy would challenge China’s illegal bid to seize a large swath of
the South China Sea by turning atolls into armed islands, the White
House has finally ordered the destroyer USS Lassen to defend freedom of the seas and to sail within 12 miles of an
artificial island built by China on Subi reef in the Spratly island
chain. As in the case of President Obama’s hesitant responses to the
Pentagon’s surge plans in Afghanistan, Egypt’s revolution, Russia’s
assault on Ukraine, Syria’s use of chemical weapons and the Islamic
State’s dismemberment of Iraq, it may be too little too late. Even so,
when it comes to preserving and promoting freedom of the seas, it may be
more appropriate to say “Better late than never.” In any event,
what the president doesn’t seem to understand is that there’s nothing
new, let alone provocative, about the U.S. Navy challenging this sort of
mischief. America has been keeping the open seas, well, open for 215
years. Unsinkable Before digging into some of that history, we need to understand what China is doing today. China is laying claim to 90 percent of the South China Sea based on a map drawn up by Chinese cartographers in 1947, ignoring international
borders, flouting international norms and turning tiny reefs hundreds of
miles from its territorial waters into military outposts. Beijing’s goal: to control the resource-rich South China Sea and muscle the United States out of the Western
Pacific. As Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan puts it, China is trying
to turn the South China Sea into “Lake Beijing.” No doubt reflecting the
views of his government, Chinese Vice Admiral Yuan Yubai says, “The
South China Sea, as the name indicates, is a sea area that belongs to
China.” (By that logic, the Gulf of Mexico belongs to Mexico, Indian
Ocean to India, Persian Gulf to modern-day Persia, better known as
Iran.) Beijing’s new military strategy offers some of the details of how China will achieve this goal. The
document vows to “accelerate the modernization of national defense and
armed forces [and] resolutely safeguard China’s sovereignty, security
and development interests.” China is certainly succeeding at the former: China’s military spending mushroomed 170 percent between 2004 and 2013, with no signs of letting up. Beijing
increased military spending by 10 percent in 2015 and 12.2 percent in
2014. As to the latter, Beijing’s notion of sovereignty differs
radically from that of its neighbors. By international convention, a
country’s territorial waters extend 12 miles from its coastline. Beyond
that, nations observe an exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which extends
200 miles off a country’s coastline and allows for privileged
exploration rights. Not only does Beijing expect others to observe its
EEZ and the airspace above as sovereign Chinese territory (they are
not), not only does Beijing refuse to respect the EEZs of its neighbors
(ask the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan), but Beijing claims waters and
islands 500 miles from the Chinese mainland. Bolstered by its instant islands, China is asserting these claims in fait accompli fashion. Satellite images detail Beijing’s brazen island-construction operations.
These instant islands have obvious military applications. According to
the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, “China appears
to be expanding and upgrading military and civilian
infrastructure—including radars, satellite communication equipment,
antiaircraft and naval guns, helipads and docks—on some of the man-made
islands.” One of the islands has a 10,000-foot airstrip—big enough for
long-range bombers and fighter-interceptors. It pays to recall that
Gen. MacArthur once described Taiwan as America’s “unsinkable aircraft
carrier.” These islands could become China’s unsinkable aircraft
carriers. True, Beijing is not trying to lop off part of
Venezuela (like Kaiser Wilhelm II in 1902), or annexing the Sudeten in
the heart of Europe (like Adolf Hitler in 1938), or declaring a
sovereign Kuwait “Province 19” (like Saddam Hussein in 1990). But the
principle is the same. As they bully weaker neighbors and dot
international seaspace with man-made islands, China’s leaders are taking
what’s not theirs. The lesson of Munich teaches that it’s better to
confront such aggression than to appease it. Without Hindrance That
brings us to America’s enduring role in defending freedom of the seas.
America’s willingness to commit military force to freedom of the seas
dates almost to the beginning of the republic. The Barbary
States of northern Africa required ships traveling near their waters to
pay tribute to guarantee safe passage. In fact, at the time of George
Washington’s inauguration, as Donald Chidsey observes in The Wars in
Barbary, Americans were being held hostage by Barbary pirates. The U.S.
paid huge sums in tribute, ransom and naval stores to win release of
those being held—and appease further piracy. Thomas Jefferson
opposed this policy as secretary of state, and he overturned it once he
became president. He initially proposed an anti-piracy coalition with Europe “to compel the piratical states to perpetual peace.” But as Gerard Gawalt of the Library of Congress explains,
“Jefferson’s plan for an international coalition foundered on the
shoals of indifference.” (Sounds familiar.) So, Jefferson launched a
unilateral war on piracy, famously concluding, “It will be more easy to
raise ships and men to fight these pirates into reason, than money to
bribe them.” Skirmishes, battles and full-scale invasions
followed—Chidsey calls it “the great pummeling”—until the Barbary
pirates finally ended decades of attacks against U.S. shipping. But
piracy wasn’t confined to the Barbary Coast. The Congressional Research
Service (CRS) reports there were 3,000 pirate attacks in the Caribbean
between 1815 and 1823. The U.S. Navy responded in Puerto Rico, Cuba,
Spanish Florida and Mexico. All told, between 1801 and 1870, as CRS
details, U.S. forces waged a far-flung war against piracy—and for
freedom of the seas—in Tripoli, Algiers, Greece, Ivory Coast, Hong Kong,
Sumatra, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Of the hundreds
of instances of U.S. military intervention tallied by CRS, dozens are
related to piracy, freedom of the seas, freedom of transit and maritime
poaching. So, it should come as no surprise that President Wilson’s 14
Points called for “absolute freedom of navigation upon the seas.” FDR
and Churchill’s Atlantic Charter envisioned a postwar peace allowing
“all men to traverse the high seas and oceans without hindrance.” FDR
bluntly called “freedom of the seas” an “American policy.” Since
1979, U.S. forces have challenged excessive airspace and coastal claims
around the world under the Freedom of Navigation program. Thus, when
Libya’s Moammar Qaddafi declared the Gulf of Sidra as his own, the Carter administration ordered U.S. warplanes and warships into the area from time to time,
although it suspended the exercises during the Iranian hostage crisis
“because of a desire not to cause unnecessary agitation in the region,”
as the New York Times reported at the time. President
Reagan ordered the U.S. Sixth Fleet to resume exercises throughout the
Mediterranean. “We weren’t going to allow [Qaddafi] to declare
squatter’s rights over a huge area of the Mediterranean in defiance of
international law,” Reagan said. Qaddafi responded by warning that any
vessel entering the Gulf of Sidra without his permission would be
crossing a “line of death.” When the exercises recommenced in 1981,
Qaddafi sent several warplanes into international airspace to challenge
the Americans. Authorized, in Reagan’s words, to pursue attacking Libyan
warplanes “all the way into the hangar,” U.S. Naval airpower responded
with deadly force and made it clear to Qaddafi that there would be no
payoff for disregarding international norms—only costs. But
Reagan wasn’t finished defending freedom of the seas. When Iran began
attacking commercial ships in the Persian Gulf during the Iran-Iraq War,
Reagan ordered Kuwaiti ships reflagged with the Stars and Stripes and
had U.S. warships escort Kuwaiti vessels. After an Iranian mine ripped
through a U.S. ship in international waters, Reagan launched a series of
punishing military strikes against Iran. While most Americans forget
this war on the Gulf, Tehran doesn’t. On a single day in 1988, the U.S.
crippled Iran’s outlaw navy. “By the end of the operation, U.S. air and
surface units had sunk, or severely damaged, half of Iran’s operational
fleet,” a Navy report recalls. Today, 90 percent of global
trade, equaling more than $14 trillion, travels by sea. It doesn’t
happen by accident or by magic. The burden of keeping the sea lanes
open—discouraging encroachment, deterring bad actors, fighting piracy,
clearing vital waterways and chokepoints—largely falls on the U.S. Navy.
As military writer Robert Kaplan suggests, the U.S. is more of a global
umpire than global empire, which is why the Freedom of Navigation
Program continues. In fact, the U.S. military directly challenged the
dubious maritime claims of 19 countries last year.
The Obama administration also sent a flight of B-52s into China’s
unilaterally-declared “air-defense identification zone” in late 2013 to
enforce freedom of the skies. So it’s difficult to understand why Obama
has been so slow to enforce freedom of the seas around China’s illegal
islands. In reaction to Beijing’s behavior, Defense Secretary
Aston Carter began declaring in May that “the United States will fly,
sail and operate wherever international law allows.” But as the months
ticked by, the White House failed to back up Carter’s words with naval
action. In fact, up until the Lassen’s movement the last week
of October 2015, the Navy had avoided sailing or flying near the
disputed territories claimed by China since 2012—no doubt under orders from the Obama administration. This spring and summer, the White House reportedly blocked PACOM Commander Adm. Harry Harris from steaming ships within 12 miles
of China’s instant islands. “We should…be allowed to exercise freedom of
navigation and flight—maritime and flight—in the South China Sea
against those islands that are not islands,” Harris said. Note his use
of the word “allowed.”
Shrinking To move
forward, the administration needs to answer a threshold question: Is
maintaining an international system that has kept the Asia-Pacific
peaceful, prosperous and open in the national interest? If so—and it’s
difficult to argue otherwise, given America’s trade linkages and treaty
commitments in the region—then Washington should move on four fronts.
First,
Obama should order the Navy to enforce freedom of the seas by routinely
steaming ships through the international waters China is trying to
poach. Equally important, these exercises should not be pre-announced.
Just as I need not notify my neighbors of where, when or why I will be
traveling the city streets, Washington is under no obligation to
forewarn Beijing about plans to deploy Navy or Air Force assets in
international seaspace and international airspace. In fact, doing so
implies that China is owed such a forewarning, which implies that China
has a special prerogative over the areas it claims. It does not. Second,
the administration needs to internationalize the problem. There’s
strength in numbers. Given Beijing’s economic heft and burgeoning
military capability, those who want to keep the Pacific Ocean pacific
will need all the numbers they can get. In what Jane’s Defense
called “unusually forceful language,” the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations has issued a declaration endorsing “freedom of navigation in,
and over-flight above, the South China Sea.” Washington should put
muscle behind those words by organizing a standing multinational
maritime taskforce to challenge China’s claims. Washington also
should call on international organizations to address China’s
provocations. Manila has offered a roadmap by taking its behemoth
neighbor to court, appealing to a UN tribunal to keep China out of
Philippine waters. Other nations whose maritime rights have been
infringed by China should follow suit. Washington can help by offering
technical assistance, diplomatic support, and satellite and
reconnaissance evidence. Third, Washington should play the
asymmetric card. Beijing fancies itself a master of asymmetry, but
asymmetric warfare cuts both ways.
Consider the anti-access/area-denial strategy (A2AD) Beijing is employing. Researchers at RAND propose “using ground-based anti-ship missiles (ASM) as part of a U.S. A2AD
strategy” by linking several strategically located partner
nations—Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the
Philippines—in a regional ASM coalition. As former Defense Secretary
Chuck Hagel suggested last year, the Army could begin “leveraging its
current suite of long-range precision-guided missiles, rockets,
artillery and air-defense systems” with an eye toward “helping ensure
the free flow of commerce.” Fourth, Washington should end the
bipartisan gamble known as sequestration. The defense budget has fallen
from 4.7 percent of GDP in 2009 to 3.2 percent today—headed for just 2.8
percent by 2018. As China builds up and builds out, this is the best
way to invite the worst of possibilities: what Churchill called
“temptations to a trial of strength.” At the height of Reagan’s
buildup, the Navy boasted 594 ships. Even the post-Cold War Navy of the
1990s totaled 375 ships. Today’s fleet numbers just 284 ships. “For us
to meet what combatant commanders request,” according to Adm.
Jonathan Greenert, “we need a Navy of 450 ships.” Given the
reservoir of U.S. military capacity, the White House seems to argue, the
balance of power will still favor the United States, even after
sequestration takes its toll. That may appear to be true—but only until
one considers that America’s military assets and security priorities are
spread around the globe, while China’s are concentrated in its
neighborhood.
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